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International Honor Society in Social Sciences
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SHADOW PRESIDENT UPDATE:
ELECTION OUTCOME IS LINKED TO DEBATES

Americans will have to choose between two candidates who have very different values, who propose contrasting visions for the direction in which the country should go, and who present contrasting solutions to deeply rooted problems plaguing the nation. Three debates were scheduled during October 2012, allowing Americans to thoroughly evaluate Democratic President Barack Obama and his Republican challenger, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

Mitt RomneyPresident ObamaHeading into the November 6 election, the Obama campaign has operated from a platform that seems to be based on this question: “Will the country fare better by returning to the policies of George W. Bush?” This question has been accompanied by an advertising campaign that portrays Romney as the proverbial “Boogie Man” who will send the country backwards. The Obama campaign seems to have had great success over the past four months in painting the picture of Romney as a reincarnation of Bush with his advocacy of tax breaks for the wealthiest 2 percent of Americans, his calls for fewer restrictions on Wall Street, and his promise to repeal Obama's healthcare reform if elected. Obama depicts Romney as someone who is out of touch with the “hardworking,” “everyday” Americans, and who, in his quest to amass his fortune of millions, Swiss bank accounts, and offshore investments, sent American jobs overseas while heading Bain Capital.

Heading into the October 3 debate, Reuters Ipsos polls showed that Romney trailed Obama, who had small leads in polls centering on the economy and job creation. Obama enjoyed double-digit leads in polls centering on the issue of taxation by 45 to 35 percent. On the issue of Social Security, Obama had a 43 to 31 percent lead in polls.

President Obama was not very impressive in the first debate, which was centered on “Domestic Policy.” He seemed somewhat stunned and unprepared for Gov. Romney, who put on a strong showing. Obama's performance was considered by many to be lackluster.” Obama responded with too many ummms and well umms. His delivery seemed somewhat lazy in contrast to the energetic Romney, who was much sharper verbally and very aggressive. Reuters Ipsos polls depict now that Romney is viewed positively by 51 percent of Americans. On multiple core issues, Romney has surged ahead of Obama, who still enjoys a 56-percent approval rating. Obama and his administration now realize that it will not be a cakewalk to the finish line.

Going into the debate, Romney was viewed as needing a strong performance to offset video footage, released in September, of him at a private fundraiser criticizing Obama supporters as representing 47 percent of Americans who are dependent on government, and who feel a sense of entitlement to government favoritism and handouts. Romney needed a strong debate to turn the tide of the race, and appears to have done just that. The strong debate performance by Romney cost Obama 5 percentage points in the polls. Obama now leads Romney among likely voters by 47 to 42 percent. This figures to be a close race. Obama will have to do more than reiterate the fact that he inherited a “mess” four years ago, and will have to do more than depict Romney as the “monster” who will turn the clock back to the days of George W. Bush. Vice President Joe Biden will have to come up big in the upcoming vice-presidential debate, thereby setting the stage for a showdown in the last two debates between the presidential nominees. Stay tuned.

Dr. Matthew Anderson
Shadow President

Public domain images sourced at USA.gov

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